By Ian Pool (auth.), Shripad Tuljapurkar, Naohiro Ogawa, Anne H. Gauthier (eds.)
Population development slowed the world over within the final a long time of the 20th century, altering considerably our view of the long run. The 21st century is probably going to work out the top to global inhabitants development and turn into the century of inhabitants getting older, marked via low fertility and ever-increasing existence expectancy. those tendencies have triggered many to foretell a depressing destiny as a result of an exceptional financial burden of inhabitants getting older. In reaction, industrialized countries might want to enforce powerful social and monetary rules and courses.
This is the ultimate quantity in a chain of 3. The papers integrated discover many examples and improve the foundation for potent monetary and social rules via investigating the industrial, social, and demographic effects of the modifications within the buildings of inhabitants and family members. those results contain alterations in monetary habit, either in exertions and fiscal markets, and with reference to saving and intake, and intergenerational transfers of cash and care.
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Extra resources for Ageing in Advanced Industrial States: Riding the Age Waves - Volume 3
The approach outlined above starts from an assumed level and age pattern of mortality. Thus an important issue is how sensitive the results are for the choice of a particular life table. In other words, how do the characteristics of the stable population change when the mortality pattern changes? There is no general analytical answer to this question, but the effects are probably not large for actual populations. Coale (1972) and Keyfitz (1985) have analysed the case in which the mortality change is the same for all ages.
1: growth rates are too low by a factor ten. 6 7 36 N. Keilman observed for less developed countries, where data quality often is poor (Keilman 2001). In the present paper, the focus is on industrialized countries and, therefore, I shall assume that inaccurate age structure forecasts are only caused by wrong assumptions for the components of change. Errors in projected age structures for various industrialized countries turn out to have a common pattern. The errors are large and positive for young age groups and more or less equally large but negative for the elderly.
If there is a deficit of women at younger reproductive ages, then no incentive can increase dramatically the size of birth cohorts, regardless of the fertility levels of those couples having children. 5 1950 Ratio Female Population 35-44/25-34 years Ratio Female Population 35-44/25-34 years Age-Structural Transitions in Industrialized Countries Fig. 6 Age-structural transitions, reproductive potential, ratio of number of women at the late reproductive ages to those at the most highly fecundable ages, selected countries and western developed countries,1950–2050 (WDC Bold Line) number of women at older reproductive ages and women at more fecund ages.
Ageing in Advanced Industrial States: Riding the Age Waves - Volume 3 by Ian Pool (auth.), Shripad Tuljapurkar, Naohiro Ogawa, Anne H. Gauthier (eds.)